Sustainability
"We must bear in mind, then, that there is nothing more difficult and dangerous, or more doubtful of success, than an attempt to introduce a new order of things in any state. For the innovator has for enemies all those who derived advantages from the old order of things, whilst those who expect to be benefited by the new institutions will be but lukewarm defenders." - Niccolo Machiavelli - circa 1500
The Path to Wholeness Goes Through Sustainability
Watch Dr. Edgar Mitchell Apollo 14 astronaut talk about his perceptions and intrepretations of the view of earth from space and his message on sustainability.
"The earth does not belong to man, man belongs to the earth. All things are connected like the blood that unites us all. Man did not weave the web of life, he is merely a strand in it. Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself." - Chief Seattle
Stewards of the Earth
At the end of World War II (circa 1945), the world population was approximately 2.5 billion people. Today, in the year 2025, that same population is estimated to be around 8.2 billion. In the span one life time (for someone living in a developed country) the population of the world has increased by 5.7 billion people (a factor of 3.3). As the chart shows this growth is exponential. This astounding increase in terms of the actual number of people now on the planet is unprecedented in the entire history of earth and is clearly unsustainable.
​
​Around 44% of today’s world population (3.5 billion people) are considered poor or extremely poor. Most live in third world countries, and they are attempting to survive on less than $6.85 per day; those considered living in extreme poverty (approximately 700 million of the 3.5 billion poor souls) survive on less than $2.15 per day. In contrast, the majority of people living in developed countries around the world have such a high standard of living that it would be considered pure fantasy if the modern lifestyle was described to the royalty and elites of society of just a few hundred years ago.
​
To improve their living conditions, people in poor countries or impoverished situations have three choices: They can either stay where they are and try to eke out a subsistence living, seek to overthrow the established institutions of power to share or take resources away from the wealthy and privileged few, or, if they can, try to migrate to a more affluent country or geographical area in the hopes of obtaining a piece of the wealth pie and a better life.
When all the trees have been cut down,
When all the animals have been hunted,
When all the waters are polluted,
When all the air is unsafe to breathe,
Only then will you discover that you cannot eat, drink, or breathe money
​
Taken from Cree prophecy
Meanwhile in western countries, consumerism and accumulating material possessions are the word of the day. As a side effect of consumerism, waste, pollution, environmental degradation, famine, wars, and pestilence are often the result because of the quest for power and control over the masses. All the while civilization continues to literally burn through its nonrenewable (and even renewable) resources. In addition, because of recent advances in science and technology over the last 150 years, many of the things that have a profound impact on the natural environment are now changing at such a rapid pace that most of the creatures living in the natural world do not have time to adapt.
How much longer can the demands on the world’s nonrenewable resources continue? Already, the world is experiencing shortages and the corresponding price increases that always occur when a precious resource is in short supply. Sand for cement, copper, iron, silver, uranium, fertilizer for agriculture, petroleum, fresh water and several others in many areas are all expected to be depleted or severely reduced some time in this century. Oh, yes, I don’t recall that mother nature has created any new lands suitable for agriculture, or new mineral resources lately, have you? Well, perhaps a small volcanic island somewhere in the remote Pacific ocean.
Those with the wealth (or power) to afford it have begun to hoard these precious resources. Billionaires and foreign investors are now buying up farmland, mineral and water rights in several areas of the U.S. and elsewhere in the world. In addition, it is estimated that the richest 1% of the global population owns nearly half of the world’s wealth and that disparity is only increasing. What will be left for future generations? Do we have any moral obligation to save anything for them?
Continuing growth and accelerated demand for resources to support earth’s ever increasing population will only continue unless massive change occurs. Our current economic systems depend on growth as businesses and their competition must continually expand to stay competitive and maintain market share. Continuous growth in a closed system is unsustainable. Sooner or later all the easily obtainable resources will be depleted and those remaining will be much more difficult (and expensive) to recover, process and use. And that is expected to happen within a few decades or even within a few years in some instances.
And, yes, the earth is a closed system. No material, nothing, gets into or out of the planet except for the occasional meteor or asteroid (which don’t even begin to make a dent in the earth’s total stores of such materials). Only the sun’s energy can enter earth’s closed system and that too will end in the distant future when the sun has burned through its fuel supply.
Population Conundrum
The big question: Will this coming population decline be a “too little to late” scenario regarding overall growth and the impact on the earth’s resources and the continued degradation of its environment.
Although the overall human population of the planet will continue to increase throughout most of the rest of this century, there is a counter trend emerging that is also threatening the sustainability of our civilization. It is known as the “demographic time-bomb”. This counter trend is already occurring in many developed countries around the globe. In these countries, there has already been a significant drop in population.
​
The causes for the population decline for these countries are many and varied. They include declining fertility rates, increased access for women to higher education and training, new skilled job opportunities and economic pressures because of the high costs of raising children. As the developing world raises their standards of living, it is likely that a similar fate of population decline will occur in those countries as well. (Refer to the chart showing the various estimates as to when this is likely to occur.)
The countries that are currently already experiencing population declines include Japan, Germany, Italy, Spain, China, Russia and South Korea. Fertility rates are very low and these populations are aging rapidly. Fortunately, countries like the United Statas, Canada and Australia are experiencing less demographic pressure due to relatively higher fertility rates and immigration but face a similar fate for the longer term, probably by the end of this century.
​
As a country’s population ages out, there will be demands to increase the pool of workers to sustain its aging population and to keep the country’s economy viable. If this is not addressed in a meaningful way, the potential for societal collapse is a real possibility. If this is managed by reducing the barriers for immigration of migrants from poorer countries, will they have the skills and the education to fill in for the slacking labor pool?
With enough migration and declining native populations, there is also the potential for pushback as any large influx of population will bring with them their own cultures and, perhaps, even the values and languages of their home countries. Cultural clashes and civil unrest are already being played out in some of the developed countries that have already experienced a large influx of migrants.
Increasing fertility may be an option in some cultures but, for others, increasing access to education, skilled job opportunities and economic pressures associated with the high cost of living in raising children will present tough challenges to overcome even with government incentives to increase those fertility rates.
​
The Solution
Given the two counter trends outlined above, what are the appropriate population limits to a sustainable human civilization for the planet for the long term? Whatever it is, our economic systems and our institutions will have to change from being growth oriented to one that focuses on long term sustainability instead. A population that is either too high or too low will not lead to a sustainable civilization for our planet. We are facing the Goldilocks conundrum: What is the population for the planet that is just right – not too small and not to large?
The only solution is for humanity to mimic what nature does. We must balance the population to the appropriate sustainable levels while also reducing consumption, and shifting to a "reuse and recycle everything" mentality, and by letting nothing go to waste. Continually increasing population and planned obsolescence to sustain growth is no longer a viable option for the long term. We must do all this and more to keep our voracious demand for resources (and population) in check. It seems like a very tall order and very challenging in the world's current political environment, but one that we must find a way to achieve if humanity is to continue to survive let alone thrive on planet earth.
To check out the other pages in this section, refer to the other submenu items under "Ecosystems" at the top of the page.
Exponential Growth Explained
To view a video on the implications of exponential population growth and its implications for our planet, please watch the YouTube video below.
A copy of the presentation used in the "Exponential Growth Explained" video can be downloaded by clicking on the "Resources" menu item above, and then selecting "Presentations"
Four Scenarieos for the Future of Humanity in the 21st Century
Part 1 is the first part of a 2-part series that reviews the eight major challenges facing humanity in the 21st century providing a very high-level big picture view. The second video (part 2) describes some of the risks posed by these challenges and will discuss the most likely scenarios that may play out and implications to humanity for each.
The Future of Humanity Part 1
The Future of Humanity Part 2
A copy of the presentation used in the two part video series "Future Scenarios for Humanity in the 21st Century" can be downloaded by clicking on the "Resources" menu item above, and then selecting "Presentations"